The Jack D. Gordon Institute, in partnership with the Latin America Caribbean Center, hosted a virtual panel discussion on October 30, 2024, examining the effectiveness and consequences of economic sanctions against Venezuela.

The webinar, titled "Venezuela at a Crossroads: Reassessing Sanctions - The Best Way Forward?" brought together international experts to analyze the complex implications of sanctions policy.

Gabriela Hoberman, Director of Academic Programs at the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, moderated the panel, which featured Asdrubal Oliveros from Ecoanalitica, Brian Fonseca of FIU's Jack D. Gordon Institute, Feliciano Reyna from Accion Democratica, and Christopher Sabatini, Senior Fellow for Latin America at Chatham House.

Panelists reached a consensus that while Venezuela's economic collapse stems primarily from corruption under the Chavez and Maduro governments, economic sanctions have largely failed to achieve their intended goal of regime change. Instead, experts argued, the sanctions have exacerbated humanitarian challenges and pushed Venezuela closer to U.S. adversaries like Russia, Iran, China, and Turkey.

Asdrubal Oliveros highlighted that Venezuela currently exports approximately 880,000 barrels of oil per day under existing licenses, primarily to the United States. He warned that revoking these licenses could backfire, as it would likely push sales to the black market through intermediaries, particularly to China, potentially increasing discretionary funds available to the Maduro regime.

"The government has established alternative mechanisms that make it stronger and that ultimately negatively impact the private sector and the people," Oliveros explained during the discussion.

Brian Fonseca emphasized the need to reevaluate the sanctions strategy, suggesting a shift from broad economic sanctions to more targeted individual sanctions. He advocated for increased U.S. private sector engagement and stronger regional partnerships with countries like Guyana, Colombia, and Brazil as potential catalysts for change.

The humanitarian impact of sanctions featured prominently in the discussion. Feliciano Reyna noted that Venezuela has received only 17% of its requested $617 million in humanitarian assistance for 2024, affecting support for 7.6 million people in need.

Panelists expressed concern that the uncertainty created by sanctions has deterred international donors and complicated humanitarian aid delivery.

Looking forward, the experts proposed several alternatives to broad economic sanctions, including:

· Improving the current licensing framework to maintain transparency in oil exports

· Developing multilateral approaches rather than relying on unilateral U.S. action

· Creating mechanisms to reintegrate Venezuela into the international system

· Exploring ways to separate humanitarian assistance from political conflicts

The discussion concluded with a broader examination of sanctions' role in global geopolitics. Christopher Sabatini warned that reimposing sanctions could contribute to global economic fragmentation and urged careful consideration of long-term consequences before taking punitive actions.

The Jack D. Gordon Institute’s second panel in its Venezuela series explored potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy as Donald Trump prepares to return to office. The November 20, 2024 discussion, "The New Trump Administration's Policy Toward Venezuela: Return to Maximum Pressure or Explore New Options?" brought together former government officials and international scholars to examine likely policy directions.

Co-hosted by the Jack D. Gordon Institute and the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI), was moderated by FIU Political Science Professor Eduardo Gamarra and featured Juan Gonzalez, former Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council; Hussein Kalout, Political Scientist from the University of Brasília and CEBRI advisory board member; and John Magdaleno, Professor at the Institute of Higher Studies in Administration for the Andres Bello Catholic University (UCAB).

Panelists agreed that while the previous "maximum pressure" strategy failed to achieve a democratic transition in Venezuela, the Biden administration's approach has fallen short of its goals. They emphasized that Venezuela presents challenges and opportunities for the incoming Trump administration, particularly with Senator Marco Rubio's nomination as Secretary of State.

"Venezuela presents a huge opportunity for the Trump administration because you have competing national security interests for the U.S. – transition to democracy in-country and the influence of external actors: China, Iran, and Russia, as well as immigration," noted Juan Gonzalez, who previously served as Special Assistant to President Biden.

Magdaleno outlined three potential paths for the Trump administration:

· Pursuing new negotiations with economic concessions in exchange for concrete steps toward a transition

· Returning to economic sanctions as the primary foreign policy tool

· Exploring some form of military pressure

The discussion highlighted significant regional complications, particularly regarding Brazil's role. Hussein Kalout detailed Brazil's current diplomatic crisis with Venezuela, noting that Brazil will likely "remain quite distant from Caracas for the next year." He also pointed to Venezuela's recent agreement with China to export oil until 2050, which he argued "guarantees Venezuela’s economic stability for the next 25 years."

Immigration emerged as a crucial topic, with panelists emphasizing its connection to broader policy goals. "I don't think you can negotiate migration without democracy," Gonzalez said, adding that stabilizing the Venezuelan economy is key to preventing the outflow of migrants: " When news of negotiations became public, and there were signals of sanctions relief, migration practically stopped."

The experts suggested that the Trump administration's prioritization of competing interests – democracy, immigration, and energy security – will ultimately shape its Venezuela policy. “What remains to be seen is which foreign policy measure, or combination of measures, Trump will use to seek a negotiation with Maduro,” stated Magdaleno. However, according to Gonzalez, “Sanctions alone are not going to lead to regime change, in the absence of a mediation effort,” adding, “The question is, which sanctions will lead to increases in revenue for the regime and which ones won’t.”

The experts also advocated greater focus on municipal and gubernatorial elections as potential leverage points for democratic change.

Looking ahead, panelists expressed cautious expectations about short-term prospects for change in Venezuela. However, they noted that Senator Rubio's deep understanding of the situation, particularly regarding external actors' influence, could help address the crisis through a more comprehensive approach.